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PAX Global (327 HK) - 1H19 results beat; long term potentials remain

作者: 陈永豪,苏林
时间: 2019年08月14日
重要性: 一般报告
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摘要: 报告名称:PAX Global (327 HK) - 1H19 results beat; long term potentials remain
研究员:陈永豪,苏林
报告类型:分分彩官网app报告
报告日期:20190814
[内容摘要]

■ 1H19 results beat guidance & expectations on strong overseas sales, but flattish 2019 guidance kept unchanged
■ Valuation undemanding; long-term growth potential remains as PAX target further penetration in emerging markets

Results beat helped by strong overseas momentum

1H19 results came in well ahead of our expectation and the company guidance (flattish growth & margins for 2019). Revenue grew 26% YoY to HK$2.4bn, as its strong overseas expansion (+39%) offset the weakness in China (-44%). GM expanded 3.0ppt HoH to 38.6% (flat YoY) in 1H19, as overseas sales accounted for 93% of total revenue (vs. 84% in 2H18). Net profit grew 26% YoY, for EPS of HK$0.30. The company proposed an interim dividend of HK$0.04/share (14% payout).

Soft 2019 guidance maintained

Despite an upbeat 1H19, PAX maintained its full-year guidance of flattish revenue growth for 2019 with stable GM (36-38%) and OM (13-15%), due to an expected slowdown in LACIS (57% of 1H19 revenue) and China. Against a typically stronger 2H, the management forecasts a softer 2H19 for LACIS region due to demand pull-in in 1H19, but remain optimistic for 2020 given market share gains in other countries. PAX is taking steps to streamline its operations in China, targeting to improve profitability from 2020. The company saw stronger-than-expected growth in India (200k+ payment terminals shipped), and expects further growth in 2H19.

Long-term growth potentials remain

PAX continues to expand its Android-based solutions, which offers better app customizability and should continue to gain customer tractions. POS penetration remained low in emerging countries (avg. 13 units per 1,000 population, vs. 31 units in developed markets), providing future growth potentials. Financial position is healthy (net cash >70% of market cap), allows investment in new product/markets or acquisition in coming years.

Valuation undemanding; maintained BUY

PAX shares trade at 7x 2019E P/E (1 std. below its 8x historical average and 20x peer average), undemanding in our view. We kept our 2019-21E estimates largely unchanged on the conservative guidance and outlook. Maintain BUY and TP to HK$4.0, still based on 7x 2019E P/E.

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